Bitcoin Encounters Resistance at Key Level, According to CryptoQuant

Bitcoin's surge toward $75,000 is being met with significant supply, even as institutional demand remains steady. The recent price increase has been largely driven by macroeconomic factors rather than speculative activity, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experiencing consistent inflows. Approximately $240 million was invested in a single session following Middle East geopolitical tensions, according to market maker Enflux. This investment helped lift bitcoin from around $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite traditional markets facing rising oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations. The pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than momentum-driven investing. However, as bitcoin's price increases, the market's character is shifting. On-chain data suggests that supply is emerging more aggressively as prices approach a key cost-basis level for short-term holders, around $76,800, which is the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the drawdown. This level has often acted as resistance in weaker market regimes, as investors who were previously at a loss use rallies to exit at breakeven. CryptoQuant noted that bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range. The average deposit size rose to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, indicating that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers increased from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days, a shift that has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure. This sets up a two-sided market, with ETF flows and macro tailwinds providing steady demand on one side, and large holders reducing exposure on the other. The result is a market that can move higher quickly on inflows but struggles to sustain those gains once supply builds. A sustained break above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of sell pressure. Failing that, the balance could tilt the other way, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback toward the low-$70,000s.