The prospects for the Crypto Clarity bill, aimed at regulating the US crypto market, are uncertain, with Wintermute's head of policy Ron Hammond estimating a 30% chance of passage this year. Hammond cited various obstacles, including political tensions, stalled negotiations, and shifting timelines. Despite signs of progress, the legislative process is advancing unevenly.

The bill seeks to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. He noted that lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some targeting a vote as early as April 20. However, Hammond cautioned that such timelines have been fluid for months.

The passage of the Clarity Act is considered crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A key hurdle is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.

Hammond stated that attempts to find a solution have been met with resistance from banks, and negotiations remain stuck. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.

The politics around the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, but progress will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require significant progress in the coming months.