The Crypto Clarity Act, aimed at establishing clear regulations for the US crypto market, faces significant hurdles, according to Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond. He estimates a 30% chance of the bill passing this year, citing the complex legislative process and uneven progress.
Hammond's assessment aligns with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The bill's passage is crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules for digital assets and reduce ambiguity.
Traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant obstacle, with disputes over stablecoin yields and negotiations stuck. The politics around the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around DeFi and anti-money laundering compliance. Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its US footprint and has a significant stake in the bill's outcome. Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passage remains.