According to Wall Street broker Bernstein, the growing presence of quantum computing presents a legitimate yet surmountable threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Recent advancements in quantum technology have shortened the timeline for potential attacks on modern cryptography.
However, the firm notes that scaling quantum systems to break widely used encryption remains a complex challenge. Analysts emphasize that quantum computing should be viewed as a medium to long-term system upgrade cycle rather than an existential risk. The principles of quantum mechanics enable quantum computers to process multiple possibilities simultaneously, making them more efficient at solving certain problems, such as breaking encryption, than classical computers. The threat posed by quantum computing is not unique to Bitcoin and spans various industries, including finance and defense.
Bernstein estimates that approximately 1.7 million BTC held in older wallets are more vulnerable to quantum attacks, while newer practices and protocols reduce this vulnerability. The broker expects the crypto industry to have sufficient time, around three to five years, to transition toward post-quantum cryptography, with upgrades such as new wallet standards and key rotation already under discussion.