The emergence of quantum computing poses a credible yet manageable threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, according to a report by Wall Street broker Bernstein. Recent breakthroughs in quantum computing have accelerated the timeline for potential risks to crypto, but the firm argues that Bitcoin is likely to face a multi-year upgrade cycle rather than an existential crisis.
The report highlights that while advances in quantum computing, such as those made by Google Quantum AI, have reduced the time required for potential attacks on modern cryptography, scaling quantum systems to break widely used encryption remains a complex challenge. Analysts at Bernstein suggest that the rise of quantum computing should be viewed as a medium to long-term system upgrade cycle rather than a risk. Quantum computing operates on the principles of quantum mechanics, using qubits that can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing for the simultaneous processing of many possibilities. This enables quantum systems to solve certain problems, such as breaking encryption, more efficiently than classical computers.
However, the report notes that the threat posed by quantum computing is not unique to Bitcoin and spans multiple industries, including finance and defense. The broker estimates that around 1.7 million BTC held in older wallets are vulnerable to quantum attacks, but newer practices and protocols reduce this vulnerability. Furthermore, Bitcoin mining, which relies on SHA-based hashing, remains secure even in advanced quantum scenarios.
Bernstein expects the crypto industry to have sufficient time to transition to post-quantum cryptography, with upgrades such as new wallet standards and key rotation already under discussion. A recent academic paper suggested that attacking the Bitcoin blockchain through quantum mining would require an enormous amount of energy, equivalent to that of a star.