According to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, the immediate threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network is low, but the industry must start preparing for the eventual migration. As a pioneer in Bitcoin's history with a background in cryptography dating back to the 1990s, Back emphasized that while the theoretical risk of quantum computing is real, it is not yet a practical concern in an interview with Bloomberg. Back pointed out that current quantum hardware lacks error correction, a point supported by two recent papers that approach the issue from different perspectives, framing quantum computing as a long-term rather than near-term threat to cryptographic systems.
However, Back stressed that the focus should be on timing the response correctly, rather than dismissing the threat. He suggested that preparing Bitcoin and providing users with the option to migrate their keys to a quantum-resistant format over the next decade is a prudent approach. This timeline is in line with the development of post-quantum cryptography, which is transitioning from theoretical to practical implementation, particularly after the standardization of guidelines by NIST in late 2024. Back highlighted that active preparation is already underway across the ecosystem, with ongoing research and deployment, citing a 20-person research team and the implementation of solutions on Blockstream's Liquid network.
The challenge for the industry is to coordinate a gradual and orderly migration before the quantum threat becomes pressing.