According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the chances of the Crypto Clarity bill passing this year are approximately 30%. Hammond's cautious outlook stems from the numerous challenges the bill faces, including political friction, stalled negotiations, and uncertain timelines, despite the momentum it has gained in Washington. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations around crypto market structure in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has odds slightly above even.
The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the varying estimates. Hammond, who will be speaking at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges that there is incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20. However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. The main obstacle to the bill's passage is the banking sector, particularly the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, traditional financial institutions remain opposed to this, and negotiations have stalled.
The dispute has already derailed one proposed compromise, and a new version is currently being circulated, although expectations are tempered. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act.
Some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing a challenging situation. Hammond notes that unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance are also contributing to the political headwinds. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year, when political incentives may shift. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, as it expands its US footprint and grows its New York team.
The firm's commitment to the US market reflects a broader industry commitment, particularly under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential, and while Hammond sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.