Ron Hammond, Wintermute's policy head, has expressed a cautious outlook on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage in 2026 at around 30%, despite signs of progress in Washington. The bill aims to establish clear regulations for the US crypto market, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's prediction aligns with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some targeting a vote as early as April 20, although Hammond notes that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded and regulated. However, traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant obstacle due to their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. Negotiations have been ongoing, but a solution has yet to be found. Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, but progress will require breakthroughs that have so far been elusive.
The outcome of the Clarity Act is critical for Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond's estimate of a 30% chance of passage serves as a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.