Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, with multiple factors at play. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's assessment is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for digital assets and reduce ambiguity.
Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a major obstacle, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent compromise attempt failing to satisfy either side.
The dispute has significant implications for the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding. Hammond noted that additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. The outcome of the Clarity Act is critical for Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team.
Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passage remains unchanged.