Lack of Conviction in Institutions' Bitcoin Positioning

Despite a 7% increase in bitcoin's price since Sunday, conviction remains weak due to the recovery stalling near $72,000 ahead of key binary risks, including Friday's U.S. inflation report and U.S.-Iran truce talks. Institutions are adopting a cautious approach, evident in the options market where they continue to pursue upside via calls. Demand for the $45 call expiring in May has been observed, indicating expectations of a price rise above the current $40. However, demand for puts, offering downside protection, persists. The U.S. consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, which may lead to market volatility. The weekend meeting between Iranian and U.S. delegates holds the key to financial market stability, with a potential end to the war and normalization of oil tanker traffic likely to accelerate bitcoin's rally.