Ron Hammond, the head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, has expressed a guarded view on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at approximately 30%. This assessment comes despite growing momentum in Washington, with Hammond pointing to the numerous complexities and uncertainties involved in the legislative process. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear guidelines for the regulation of crypto market structures in the US, including the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing digital assets.
Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey that put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these estimates.
Hammond, who is set to speak at the upcoming Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20. However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months, with 'moving parts' and 'hurdles along the way.' The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules distinguishing between securities and commodities, and define how digital assets can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has deterred many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds from engaging with crypto due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would alleviate this ambiguity, enabling institutions to confidently scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. A key obstacle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.
According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with attempts by various parties, including Coinbase and the White House, to find a solution. The dispute has already led to the failure of at least one proposed compromise, with a new version currently circulating, but expectations are tempered.
Hammond notes that the resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, especially for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act, having accepted crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, albeit narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year.
For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm expands its US footprint and grows its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is thus all the more consequential, with Hammond emphasizing that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.