According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, the Crypto Clarity Act has a cautious outlook, with a 30% chance of passing this year. Hammond's estimate comes as momentum builds in Washington, but the legislative process remains uneven. The act aims to establish rules around crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee digital assets.

Hammond pointed to a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered just above even odds. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20.

However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.

Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushing back on bank opposition. The dispute has derailed at least one compromise, and a new version is now circulating, but expectations are tempered. Hammond also noted that some Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding are navigating a difficult balancing act, and additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months.

Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S.

market under a more favorable regulatory environment.