The head of policy at Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing in 2026 at around 30% despite growing momentum in Washington. Hammond cited the complex legislative process, with many moving parts, as a key factor in his assessment.

The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees signs of progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.

However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US.

The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.

However, Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a major obstacle, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers has pushed back on bank opposition, but negotiations remain stalled.

Hammond noted that attempts to find a solution have been made by various parties, including Coinbase, the White House, and the bill's drafters, but the banks have refused to give way. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and a new version is now being circulated, but expectations are tempered. Hammond also pointed to the political challenges surrounding the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support.

Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year, when political incentives may shift. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has expanded its US footprint and is growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment.

The outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.