Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%. The bill aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's prediction is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey that put the odds at 26% and prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered around even odds. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months and that there are still significant hurdles to overcome, particularly from traditional financial institutions. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key factor in unlocking institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for the regulation of digital assets in the US.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. Hammond believes that a comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto and integrate it more fully into traditional financial systems.
The main obstacle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to give way despite attempts from various sides to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version of the bill. Hammond also noted that the politics around the bill are complex, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding and are now navigating a difficult balancing act.
Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes that the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year.
For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. The outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial, and Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.