According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill faces significant hurdles, with only a 30% chance of being passed this year. Hammond's assessment is based on the complex legislative process, which, despite showing signs of advancement, remains uneven. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's prediction aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has odds slightly above even.
The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the varying estimates. Hammond, who is set to speak at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges the progress being made, with lawmakers pushing for the bill to be moved through committee, potentially leading to a vote as early as April 20. However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear guidelines on which digital assets are considered securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has deterred many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds from entering the market due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. One of the main obstacles to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.
According to Hammond, negotiations have been stalled, with banks refusing to compromise, despite attempts by various parties, including Coinbase, the White House, and the bill's drafters, to find a solution. The dispute has already led to the failure of at least one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, especially for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding. Hammond notes that some lawmakers are struggling to take a stance on the issue, given their ties to the crypto industry and unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance.
Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support for the bill. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, albeit narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome of the Clarity Act, as it expands its US footprint and grows its New York team. The firm's commitment to the US market reflects a broader industry commitment to the region, particularly under what firms perceive as a more favorable regulatory environment.
Hammond emphasizes that the outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial, and passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.