Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%, despite gathering momentum in Washington. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, with multiple moving parts, as a major obstacle.
The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's assessment is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as a crucial step for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for distinguishing between securities and commodities, and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US.
The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate it into traditional financial systems. However, traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant hurdle, with disputes over stablecoins and yield being a major point of contention.
According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to compromise, despite attempts by various parties, including Coinbase, the White House, and the bill's drafters, to find a solution. The issue has already derailed one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The politics surrounding the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around DeFi and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support.
Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, with the firm expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasized that the outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial, with passage in 2026 requiring breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.