According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill has a cautious 30% chance of passing this year. Hammond's estimate is based on the current legislative process, which is advancing unevenly, and the numerous moving parts involved. The bill aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's prediction aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has odds hovering just above even. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Crypto Clarity bill is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for distinguishing between securities and commodities and define how digital assets can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto, launch new products, and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems.
One of the main hurdles to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, banks remain the biggest obstacle, and negotiations have been stuck despite attempts from various sides to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version of the bill are tempered.
The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act due to their acceptance of crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome of the Crypto Clarity bill, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team.
The outcome of the bill is consequential for the firm, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.