The head of policy at Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity bill, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%. This assessment is based on the complexities of the legislative process, which, despite advancing, remains uneven. The bill aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi, which also indicate a challenging path forward for the bill. Lawmakers are pushing for the bill to move through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, although such timelines have been fluid. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded and regulated.
Currently, the fragmented and uncertain framework keeps many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A key hurdle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding whether stablecoins should offer yield.
Negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to compromise, despite attempts from various sides to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The politics around the bill are also complex, especially for Democrats, who face a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support.
Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. For Wintermute, which is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, the stakes are high, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S.
market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential, and while Hammond sees progress, he emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.