Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed a cautious outlook on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%. This assessment comes despite momentum building in Washington, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and potentially voting on it as early as April 20. However, Hammond notes that such timelines have been fluid for months, and the legislative process is advancing unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to establish rules around crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets.

Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered just above even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these estimates.

Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers aiming to move the bill through committee, but he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.

A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. However, hurdles remain, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield, with traditional financial institutions being the biggest obstacle.

Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushing back on bank opposition. A proposed 'yield deal' floated roughly two weeks ago failed to satisfy either side, sending negotiators back to the drawing board. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations are tempered for a new version currently circulating.

The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, with some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding navigating a difficult balancing act. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with Hammond flagging ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint.

Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S.

market under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, and while Hammond sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.