Ron Hammond, the head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%. Hammond cited the legislative process as a major obstacle, with multiple moving parts and uneven progress.
The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Despite the challenges, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle, with the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield being a major point of contention. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and negotiations remain stuck. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act.
Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing a challenging situation. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is highly consequential for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.