The rise of quantum computing poses a significant yet manageable threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, as recent breakthroughs shorten the timeline for potential attacks on modern cryptography, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein. The firm notes that while advances such as Google Quantum AI's reduced qubit requirements bring the risk closer, scaling quantum systems to break widely used encryption remains a complex challenge.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argue that quantum computing should be viewed as a medium to long-term system upgrade cycle rather than a risk. Quantum computing, which uses the principles of quantum mechanics, can process multiple possibilities simultaneously, making it potentially capable of breaking encryption more efficiently than classical computers. However, the report emphasizes that the threat is a long-term risk that spans industries and is not unique to Bitcoin.
Approximately 1.7 million BTC held in older wallets are at risk, but newer practices and protocols reduce vulnerability. Bernstein expects the crypto industry to have sufficient time, around three to five years, to transition toward post-quantum cryptography, with upgrades such as new wallet standards and key rotation already under discussion.