The head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of success at approximately 30% despite gathering momentum in Washington. Hammond pointed to the numerous complexities and uneven progress in the legislative process, which aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the U.S. The bill seeks to provide clarity on the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's assessment aligns with other market signals, including a recent survey by Punchbowl, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he noted that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Crypto Clarity Act is considered crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated.
Currently, the fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure to crypto. The main obstacle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.
According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with banks refusing to compromise. The dispute has already derailed at least one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The politics surrounding the bill are also complex, with some Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding facing a difficult balancing act.
Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear.
For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team. The outcome of the Crypto Clarity Act is consequential, and while Hammond sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.