Grayscale, a digital asset manager, has released a research note emphasizing the need to expedite efforts to make public blockchains resistant to quantum computing threats. The note highlights that while technical solutions to achieve quantum resistance already exist, the main obstacle lies in reaching a consensus among decentralized communities to implement these solutions. This comes after Google Quantum AI published a paper indicating that breaking bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography could be achieved with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, posing a significant threat.
The paper's findings suggest that an attack could give an attacker a substantial chance of stealing funds before a bitcoin transaction is confirmed. Grayscale's research points out four key takeaways from Google's findings, including the unpredictable nature of progress towards a cryptographically relevant quantum computer and the maturity of post-quantum cryptography solutions. The note also discusses the varying levels of quantum risk across different blockchains, depending on their transaction models and consensus mechanisms. From a technical standpoint, bitcoin is considered to have a lower quantum risk due to its UTXO model and proof-of-work consensus.
However, the main challenge lies in deciding how to handle the approximately 6.9 million BTC in wallets with exposed public keys, including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. Possible solutions include burning these coins, taking no action, or limiting their release rate.
The bitcoin community's history of contentious debates over protocol changes may hinder the decision-making process. In contrast, Ethereum faces significant exposure to quantum threats, with multiple attack vectors worth over $100 billion. The Ethereum Foundation has been actively staking ether into validators but has not publicly addressed quantum migration timelines.