According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity Act has a cautious outlook, with only a 30% chance of being passed this year. Despite the momentum building in Washington, Hammond points to the legislative process as advancing unevenly, with many moving parts. The Clarity Act aims to establish regulations around the crypto market structure in the US, including how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee digital assets.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering just above even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in estimates.
Hammond, who will be speaking at CoinDesk's Consensus Miami conference, sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he cautions that such timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
The main hurdle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, negotiations remain stuck, with banks refusing to give way despite attempts from various sides to find a solution. The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing a challenging situation. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with Hammond flagging ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into mid-year.
For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. Hammond emphasized that the outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential, and passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.