In a recent research note, Grayscale, a digital asset manager, emphasized the need to expedite efforts to make public blockchains resistant to quantum computing, citing the existence of technical solutions but acknowledging the difficulty in achieving consensus within decentralized communities. This comes in response to a paper by Google Quantum AI, which revealed that breaking bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography could be achieved with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, potentially in under nine minutes. The research note pointed out four key takeaways from Google's findings, including the potential for progress toward a cryptographically relevant quantum computer to occur in discrete jumps, making timelines unpredictable, and the maturity of post-quantum cryptography in securing internet traffic and certain blockchain transactions.
It also highlighted that bitcoin's quantum risk is lower compared to other chains due to its UTXO model, proof-of-work consensus, and lack of native smart contracts. However, the note raised the complex issue of addressing the approximately 6.9 million BTC in wallets with exposed public keys, including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, with potential solutions including burning them, taking no action, or limiting their release rate. This dilemma underscores the challenges in achieving consensus within the bitcoin community, which has a history of contentious debates over protocol changes.
In contrast, Ethereum faces its own set of quantum-related challenges, with identified attack vectors worth over $100 billion and a predicted 10% chance of quantum key recovery by 2032, prompting the Ethereum Foundation to stake large amounts of ether into validators.