According to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, the threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network is more of a long-term concern rather than an immediate danger. However, he emphasizes the importance of preparing for this potential threat.
As a pioneer in Bitcoin's history, with a background in cryptography dating back to the 1990s, Back argues that while the risk is theoretically real, it is not yet a practical concern. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Back pointed out that current quantum hardware lacks error correction, which aligns with the findings of two recent research papers. These papers, one a serious analysis and the other a satirical piece, both suggest that quantum computing poses a long-term rather than a near-term risk to cryptographic systems. Back's primary concern is not to dismiss the threat but to ensure that the response is timely.
He suggests that it is prudent to prepare Bitcoin for the potential threat and give users the option to migrate their keys to a quantum-resistant format, allowing for a decade-long transition period. This timeline is in line with the progress being made in post-quantum cryptography, particularly after the standardization of PQC by NIST in late 2024.
Back also highlights the ongoing research and deployment efforts across the ecosystem, citing a 20-person research team that has been working on this issue and publishing papers. He mentions Blockstream's Liquid network as an early testing ground for these solutions.
The main challenge for the industry is to coordinate a gradual and orderly migration before the risk becomes urgent.