Experts Claim Attacking Bitcoin with Quantum Computers Would Require Energy Comparable to a Star

The notion that quantum computers pose an imminent threat to bitcoin's security has been a topic of discussion in recent times. However, a more nuanced analysis of the situation reveals that the threat, while real, is not as pressing as it is often made out to be. Two recent research papers highlight the limitations and challenges associated with using quantum computers to attack the bitcoin network.

The first paper examines the feasibility of using a quantum computer to outmine the bitcoin network, while the second paper takes aim at the misleading narrative surrounding quantum factoring breakthroughs. According to the first paper, running a quantum algorithm against the bitcoin network would require an enormous amount of energy, equivalent to the output of a star. The researchers estimate that a quantum mining fleet would need roughly 10^23 qubits drawing 10^25 watts, which is still 3% of the Earth's Sun. The second paper, on the other hand, takes a satirical approach to highlight the flaws in the narrative surrounding quantum factoring breakthroughs.

The authors successfully replicate every major quantum factoring breakthrough of the past two decades using a 1981 VIC-20 home computer, an abacus, and a dog named Scribble. The paper argues that many of the so-called breakthroughs in quantum factoring are exaggerated and do not reflect the actual progress made in the field. The authors suggest that the incentive to publish impressive-sounding results is strong, and as a result, researchers often resort to picking rigged numbers or doing most of the work classically.

The takeaway from these papers is not that the quantum threat is nonexistent, but rather that it is often exaggerated and misinterpreted. The real vulnerability lies in bitcoin wallets, not mining, and developers are already working on fixes to reduce key exposure and create new types of signatures that can withstand quantum attacks. While the threat is real, it is essential to separate fact from fiction and not get caught up in the hype surrounding quantum computing.