The head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage in 2026 at around 30%. Despite signs of progress, Hammond cites numerous obstacles, including political friction and shifting timelines.
The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the US crypto market, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's assessment is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. The uncertainty surrounding the bill's trajectory is underscored by the spread in these estimates. Hammond, who is set to speak at the Consensus Miami conference, acknowledges incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20.
However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months, with 'light at the end of the tunnel' but significant hurdles along the way. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the US. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale their exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems. The main obstacle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, negotiations have been stuck, with attempts from various sides, including Coinbase and the White House, to find a solution, but banks have refused to give way.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, especially for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act, having accepted crypto industry funding. Hammond notes that some lawmakers are struggling to find a stance on the issue, also considering unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, with scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings potentially complicating Democratic support.
Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift. For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the US market under a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is all the more consequential, and while Hammond sees 'light at the end of the tunnel,' he emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.