Lack of Conviction in Institutions' Bitcoin Positioning

Despite a 7% rally in bitcoin's price since Sunday, conviction remains weak due to key risks such as the upcoming US inflation report and US-Iran truce talks. Institutions are buying call options to bet on price gains, but also purchasing puts for downside protection. The demand for puts is reflected in the options skew, which remains negative across all time frames. The US consumer price index for March is expected to show a significant increase in annualized inflation, which could lead to market volatility. The meeting between Iranian and US delegates in Pakistan may also impact financial market stability and bitcoin's rally. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, which reflects volatility in US Treasury futures, has shown sharp spikes in uncertainty around inflation and interest rates.