Following intense criticism, Polymarket has taken down a market that allowed users to bet on the rescue of US service members in Iran. The market, which was widely condemned by lawmakers, including Rep. Seth Moulton, had enabled users to wager on the timing of the US confirmation of the rescue of two airmen after their F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran.
The crew members were later rescued. Moulton had previously expressed strong opposition to prediction markets, banning his staff from using platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi due to concerns that financial incentives could influence policy decisions.
A Polymarket spokesperson stated that the listing did not meet the company's integrity standards and was removed shortly after its appearance. The incident highlights the growing regulatory pressure on prediction markets, with a group of congressional Democrats recently introducing legislation to ban contracts tied to elections, war, and government actions. Additionally, several senators have urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit markets linked to individual deaths, citing national security concerns. The CFTC has also filed lawsuits against three states over efforts to bypass federal oversight of prediction markets.
The NFL has also asked operators to avoid offering contracts that could be deemed objectionable or open to manipulation. Despite the increased scrutiny, the market continues to expand, with Kalshi securing a license to offer margin trading to institutional investors and new players, including JPMorgan, entering the market.