According to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, a prominent crypto market maker, the Crypto Clarity bill has a 30% chance of being passed this year. Hammond's prognosis is cautious, despite building momentum in Washington, due to the numerous challenges the bill faces. The legislative process is advancing, albeit unevenly, with the aim of establishing clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's assessment aligns with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi, which also indicate uncertainty about the bill's trajectory. Despite this, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing for the bill to move through committee, potentially leading to a vote as early as April 20. However, he notes that such timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is considered crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear guidelines on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded and regulated.
The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto. The main hurdles to the bill's passage include opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of stablecoins offering yield.
Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side. The dispute has significant implications, especially for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding and are now navigating a difficult balancing act.
Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, potentially complicating Democratic support. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the bill's outcome, as it expands its U.S. footprint and grows its New York team.
The firm's commitment to the U.S. market reflects a broader industry commitment, particularly under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. Hammond emphasizes that passage of the Clarity Act in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, making the outcome all the more consequential.