Ron Hammond, Wintermute's policy head, has expressed a cautious view on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30% due to the complex legislative process and ongoing political friction. The act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the U.S., including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing for the bill to move through committee, possibly as early as April 20. However, he notes that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded and regulated. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto. The main obstacle to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side. The dispute has significant implications for the politics surrounding the bill, especially for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding.
Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. For Wintermute, a global crypto market maker with a significant U.S. presence, the stakes are high, and the firm is expanding its U.S.
operations. The outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial, with Hammond emphasizing that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.