The head of policy at Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity Act, predicting a 30% chance of passage this year. Despite momentum building in Washington, Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process and shifting timelines as key hurdles. The bill aims to establish clear regulations around crypto market structure in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the SEC and CFTC.
Hammond's estimate aligns with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. While lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, Hammond cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities. However, traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a significant obstacle, with disputes over stablecoin yields and negotiations stuck. Hammond noted that Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding face a difficult balancing act, and additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months.
Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, underscoring the high stakes for the industry.
Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, his estimate of a 30% chance of passage remains.