Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%, despite growing momentum in Washington. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, with multiple moving parts, as a key factor in his assessment. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market structure in the U.S., including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered around even odds.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee, potentially as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months.
The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities and how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto. Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as a major obstacle, especially regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield.
Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushing back on bank opposition. Hammond noted that attempts to find a solution have been unsuccessful, with banks refusing to compromise.
The dispute has already derailed one proposed compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered. The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act. Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. For Wintermute, the stakes are high, as the firm is expanding its U.S.
footprint and growing its New York team. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential, and Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.