Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed cautious optimism regarding the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating a 30% chance of passage in 2026. Hammond attributes this outlook to the numerous challenges and uncertainties surrounding the legislative process, including political friction and shifting timelines. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is in line with other market signals, such as a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered around even odds.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely regarded as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules and regulations for digital assets. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure to crypto and integrate it into traditional financial systems. Major hurdles remain, particularly around the issue of stablecoins offering yield, with traditional financial institutions being a significant obstacle. According to Hammond, negotiations have stalled, and a proposed 'yield deal' floated two weeks ago failed to satisfy either side. The dispute has derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The resistance from banks is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats, who are navigating a difficult balancing act. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now facing a challenging situation. Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months, including ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings.
Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, as it expands its US footprint and grows its New York team. Hammond emphasized that the outcome of the Clarity Act is crucial, and passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.