The emergence of quantum computing poses a significant but controllable threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, according to a report by Wall Street broker Bernstein. Recent breakthroughs in quantum technology have accelerated the timeline for potential attacks on modern cryptography, but the broker argues that the risk is still a medium to long-term concern.
Analysts at Bernstein suggest that the rise of quantum computing should be viewed as a system upgrade cycle rather than an existential crisis for Bitcoin. Quantum computing, which uses the principles of quantum mechanics, has the potential to solve complex problems more efficiently than classical computers, including breaking encryption.
However, the broker notes that scaling quantum systems to break widely used encryption remains a complex challenge. The report highlights that the threat posed by quantum computing is not unique to Bitcoin and spans various industries, including finance and defense. Bernstein estimates that around 1.7 million BTC held in older wallets are vulnerable to quantum attacks, but newer practices and protocols reduce this vulnerability. The broker expects the crypto industry to have sufficient time, approximately three to five years, to transition to post-quantum cryptography, with upgrades such as new wallet standards and key rotation already being discussed.
According to a recent academic paper, attacking the Bitcoin blockchain through quantum mining would require an enormous amount of energy, equivalent to that of a star.