The head of policy at Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, has expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of the Crypto Clarity bill, estimating its chances of passing this year at around 30%. Ron Hammond attributed this uncertainty to the complex legislative process and the numerous challenges that lie ahead. The bill aims to establish clear regulations for the crypto market in the US, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Hammond's assessment is in line with other predictions, including a recent Punchbowl survey that put the odds at 26%, and the prediction market Kalshi, which has been hovering around even odds. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees signs of progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.
However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months and that there are still significant hurdles to overcome. The passage of the Crypto Clarity bill is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules for the industry and reduce legal and compliance risks. The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines, but a comprehensive market structure law could give institutions the confidence to scale their exposure to crypto.
One of the major obstacles to the bill's passage is the opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly regarding the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. According to Hammond, negotiations have been stalled, with banks refusing to give way despite attempts from various sides to find a solution.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version of the bill are tempered. The politics around the bill are also complex, with some Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding facing a difficult balancing act. Hammond noted that unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance could further complicate the issue.
Additionally, ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings could emerge as a flashpoint that complicates Democratic support. Despite the challenges, Hammond believes that the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, which is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team, has a significant stake in the outcome of the Crypto Clarity bill.
The firm's commitment to the US market reflects a broader industry commitment to the region, particularly under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. Hammond emphasized that passage of the bill in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, and for now, he is sticking with his estimate of 30% odds.