Grayscale, a digital asset manager, has expressed support for expedited efforts to enhance public blockchains' resistance to quantum computing in a recent research note. The report asserts that although the necessary technical solutions are already available, the primary obstacle lies in securing agreement among decentralized communities to implement these solutions. This comes after Google Quantum AI published a paper indicating that breaking bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography could be achieved with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, significantly lowering the estimated threshold.
The research note highlights four key takeaways from Google's findings, including the potential for sudden advancements in quantum computing and the existing maturity of post-quantum cryptography. Furthermore, it notes that bitcoin's transaction model, consensus mechanism, and block time contribute to its relatively lower quantum risk compared to other blockchains.
However, the note also raises the complex issue of addressing the approximately 6.9 million BTC in wallets with exposed public keys, including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. Potential solutions, such as burning these coins or limiting their release, are discussed, but the report acknowledges the historical contentiousness of protocol changes within the bitcoin community. In contrast, Ethereum faces distinct challenges, with multiple identified attack vectors and an estimated 10% chance of quantum key recovery by 2032, prompting the Ethereum Foundation to stake substantial amounts of ether into validators.