Wintermute's head of policy, Ron Hammond, has expressed a cautious outlook on the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%, despite growing momentum in Washington. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, which is advancing unevenly, as a major obstacle. The Clarity Act aims to establish clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Hammond's estimate is broadly in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers, which put the odds at 26%, and prediction market Kalshi, which has hovered just above even odds.
Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20. However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key factor in unlocking institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, custodied, and regulated in the U.S. The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks.
A comprehensive market structure law would reduce that ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems. Hammond identified traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, as the biggest obstacle, citing their opposition to stablecoins offering yield. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers has pushed back on bank opposition, but negotiations remain stuck.
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise, and a new version is now circulating, but expectations are tempered. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now navigating a difficult balancing act, particularly Democrats.
He also flagged ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June. Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team, reflecting a broader industry commitment to the U.S.
market under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for Wintermute, and Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.