Crypto Clarity Bill Faces Uncertain Future with 30% Chance of Passing This Year

Ron Hammond, Wintermute's head of policy, has expressed cautious optimism about the Crypto Clarity Act, estimating a 30% chance of passage this year. Hammond pointed to the complex legislative process, citing uneven progress and shifting timelines. The bill aims to establish clear regulations for the US crypto market, including the oversight of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Hammond's estimate is broadly in line with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Despite the uncertainty, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and some aiming for a vote as early as April 20.

However, he cautioned that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules for digital assets and reduce ambiguity.

Traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, remain a major obstacle, with disagreements over stablecoin yield. Hammond noted that negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed compromise failing to satisfy either side.

The dispute has significant implications for the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats who have accepted crypto industry funding. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings.

Despite the challenges, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, with plans to expand its US footprint and grow its New York team. Hammond emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive, with the current 30% chance of passage serving as a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.