The emergence of quantum computing poses a significant but controllable threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape, Wall Street broker Bernstein has noted. Recent breakthroughs, such as Google Quantum AI's reduction in qubit requirements, have compressed the timeline for potential attacks on modern cryptography, making the risk more imminent than previously thought. However, scaling quantum systems to break widely used encryption remains a complex challenge.
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, suggest viewing quantum computing as a medium to long-term system upgrade cycle rather than an existential risk. Quantum computing operates on the principles of quantum mechanics, utilizing qubits that can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing for the simultaneous processing of many possibilities. When combined with entanglement, quantum systems can solve certain problems, such as breaking encryption, more efficiently than classical computers. The threat posed by quantum computers to cryptographic systems, including those used in crypto wallets, should be seen as a manageable, long-term risk rather than an existential one for Bitcoin.
Approximately 1.7 million BTC in older wallets are more vulnerable, but newer practices and protocols reduce this risk. Bitcoin mining, which relies on SHA-based hashing, remains secure even in advanced quantum scenarios. Bernstein anticipates the crypto industry will have sufficient time, around three to five years, to transition to post-quantum cryptography, with upgrades like new wallet standards and key rotation already being discussed.
An academic paper has suggested that a quantum attack on the Bitcoin blockchain would require an enormous amount of energy, equivalent to that of a star.