According to Wall Street broker Bernstein, the emergence of quantum computing poses a significant but controllable threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Recent breakthroughs in the field have accelerated the timeline for potential attacks on modern cryptography, making the risk more pressing than previously thought.
However, the firm emphasizes that scaling quantum systems to break widely used encryption remains a complex challenge. Analysts at Bernstein suggest that quantum computing should be viewed as a medium to long-term system upgrade cycle rather than a risk. The principles of quantum mechanics enable quantum computers to process multiple possibilities simultaneously, making them more efficient at solving certain problems, such as breaking encryption, than classical computers. While quantum computers could potentially weaken cryptographic systems like elliptic curve encryption, the report notes that the threat is not unique to Bitcoin and should be seen as a manageable, long-term risk.
Approximately 1.7 million BTC held in older wallets are more vulnerable to quantum attacks, but newer practices and protocols reduce this exposure. Bernstein expects the crypto industry to have sufficient time, around three to five years, to transition toward post-quantum cryptography, with upgrades such as new wallet standards and key rotation already being discussed. A recent academic paper highlighted the enormous energy requirements of attacking the Bitcoin blockchain through quantum mining, equivalent to the energy output of a star.