The Crypto Clarity Act, aimed at establishing clear rules for crypto market structure regulation in the US, faces significant obstacles, according to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute. Hammond estimates the bill has a 30% chance of passing in 2026, citing the complex legislative process and uneven progress. The act seeks to codify how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the US.
Hammond's assessment aligns with other market signals, including a recent Punchbowl survey and prediction market Kalshi. Despite the challenges, Hammond sees incremental progress, with lawmakers pushing to move the bill through committee and potential votes as early as April 20.
However, he cautions that timelines have been fluid for months. The passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as crucial for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would provide clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities.
The current fragmented framework has kept many large asset managers, banks, and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure and integrate crypto into traditional financial systems.
Key hurdles include opposition from traditional financial institutions, particularly around the issue of stablecoins offering yield. Negotiations have been stuck, with a recent proposed 'yield deal' failing to satisfy either side. The dispute has derailed at least one compromise, and expectations for a new version are tempered.
The politics around the bill are also complex, with Democrats facing a difficult balancing act due to crypto industry funding and unresolved concerns around decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance. Additional political headwinds may emerge in the coming months, including scrutiny around former President Donald Trump's crypto-related dealings.
Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable path forward, with progress in committee and continued negotiations potentially keeping it alive into midyear. Wintermute, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, has a significant stake in the outcome, with the firm expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team. The outcome of the Clarity Act is consequential for the industry, and Hammond emphasizes that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.