Venezuela's Bitcoin Fortune: A Myth with No Substance

Speculation has been circulating about the Venezuelan government secretly holding a massive bitcoin stash, potentially worth over $60 billion. However, this claim seems to be based on speculation and unverified reports, lacking concrete evidence linking these funds to state-controlled wallets. As someone born and raised in Venezuela, who has also mined bitcoin in the country, I am skeptical about the regime's ability to accumulate such a vast amount of bitcoin, and I will explain why. The allegations behind the supposed bitcoin stash include a large gold sale exchanged for bitcoin in 2018, oil revenue priced in bitcoin, and stolen or seized mining equipment. While it is true that Venezuela has received payments for some oil sales in cryptocurrency, and I have personal experience with the regime's seizure of mining equipment, I have not seen credible evidence to support the claim that the 2018 gold sale was converted into bitcoin. The mastermind behind this alleged operation, Alex Saab, was in US custody from 2020 to 2023 and was released back to Venezuela in December 2023 as part of a prisoner exchange. At the time of his release, speculation swirled that he controlled an estimated $10-20 billion in BTC. However, this amount is roughly twice the Venezuelan Central Bank's listed reserves at the time, which did not include any publicly disclosed BTC holdings. Moreover, Saab's time in US custody would have severely limited his ability to manage complex financial operations. Given the regime's long history of extreme corruption, it is unlikely that any significant value would have accrued to the treasury. The supposed crypto regulator, SUNACRIP, has been involved in corruption scandals, including the embezzlement of billions of dollars. The regime's track record of mismanaging complex operations, including the state-owned oil company PDVSA, raises further doubts about its ability to effectively operate and profit from stolen mining equipment. Additionally, the country's chronic energy shortages and fragile electrical grid pose significant challenges to setting up large-scale mining operations. In conclusion, while I believe there is bitcoin in Venezuela, it is unlikely to be in the hands of the regime.