Venezuela's Bitcoin Hype is Unfounded

Speculation has been circulating that the Venezuelan government may possess a secret stash of bitcoin, potentially worth over $60 billion. However, this claim appears to be based on speculation and unverified reports, lacking concrete evidence linking these funds to state-controlled wallets. As someone born and raised in Venezuela, who has also mined bitcoin in the country, I am skeptical about the regime holding a massive secret stash of bitcoin, and I will explain why. The allegations surrounding the regime's bitcoin stash are based on three main claims: a large gold sale exchanged for bitcoin in 2018, oil revenue priced in bitcoin, and stolen or seized mining equipment. While it is true that Venezuela received payment for some oil sales in cryptocurrency, and I can confirm that the regime did steal mining equipment, including some belonging to my family, I have not seen credible evidence that the 2018 gold sale was converted into bitcoin. The mastermind behind the alleged operation, Alex Saab, was in US custody from 2020 to 2023 and was released back to Venezuela in December 2023 as part of a prisoner exchange. At the time of his release, speculation suggested that he controlled an estimated $10-$20 billion in bitcoin. However, this amount is unlikely, given that the Venezuelan Central Bank's listed reserves at the time were approximately $9.9 billion, with no publicly identified bitcoin disclosures. Moreover, Saab's ability to direct complex financial operations was limited during his time in US custody. The history of corruption in Venezuela, particularly under the regimes of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro, makes it unlikely that any significant value would accrue to the regime's treasury. The SUNACRIP, the supposed crypto regulator, has been involved in scandals, including the embezzlement of billions of dollars. The regime's track record of mismanaging complex operations, including the state-owned oil company PDVSA, and its inability to operate effectively, even with stolen or inherited equipment, further supports this skepticism. Additionally, the country's chronic energy shortages and fragile electrical grid make it challenging to set up large-scale mining operations. In conclusion, while I believe there is bitcoin in Venezuela, it is unlikely to be in the hands of the regime.