Venezuela's Bitcoin Claims Are Unlikely to Be True

Speculation has been circulating about Venezuela's potential possession of a substantial bitcoin reserve, with some estimates valuing it at over $60 billion. However, this claim appears to be based on speculation and unverified reports, lacking concrete evidence linking the funds to state-controlled wallets. As someone who was born and raised in Venezuela and has experience mining bitcoin in the country, I am skeptical about the notion that the Venezuelan regime holds a massive secret stash of bitcoin. Let's examine the allegations. Several articles suggest that the sources of the regime's alleged bitcoin stash include a large gold sale exchanged for bitcoin in 2018, oil revenue priced in bitcoin, and stolen or seized mining equipment. While I believe that Venezuela did receive payment for some oil sales in cryptocurrency, and it is true that the regime stole mining equipment, I have not seen credible evidence that the 2018 gold sale was converted into bitcoin. The mastermind behind the alleged operation, Alex Saab, was in US custody from 2020 to 2023. Upon his release, speculation swirled that he controlled an estimated $10-$20 billion worth of BTC. However, this does not align with the public record, considering the Venezuelan Central Bank's listed reserves at the time of his release were approximately $9.9 billion, with no publicly identified BTC disclosures. Moreover, Saab's limited ability to direct complex financial operations while in US custody, combined with the lack of credible on-chain attribution linking wallets of that scale to him or the Venezuelan state, raises doubts about the claim. The proceeds from crypto sales are also unlikely to appear in Venezuela's official reserves due to the regime's history of extreme corruption. The SUNACRIP, the supposed crypto regulator, has been embroiled in scandals, including a high-ranking official embezzling billions of dollars. Any profits from crypto sales have likely been siphoned into the pockets of corrupt regime members. Additionally, the regime has a track record of mismanaging complex operations, including the state-owned oil company, PDVSA. The chronic energy shortages in the country, with programmed blackouts and an unreliable electrical grid, also make it challenging to set up large-scale mining operations. In conclusion, while I believe there is bitcoin in Venezuela, it is unlikely to be in the hands of the regime.