Venezuela's Alleged Bitcoin Hoard: A Dubious Claim

Speculation has been circulating that the Venezuelan government may be secretly holding a substantial stash of bitcoin, potentially worth over $60 billion. However, this claim appears to be based on speculation and unverified reports, lacking concrete evidence linking these funds to state-controlled wallets. As someone who was born and raised in Venezuela and has experience mining bitcoin in the country, I am skeptical about the government's ability to accumulate such a large amount of bitcoin, and I will explain why. The allegations surrounding the regime's bitcoin stash are based on three main sources: a large gold sale in 2018, supposedly swapped for bitcoin; oil revenue priced in bitcoin; and stolen or seized mining equipment. While it is true that Venezuela has received payments for some oil sales in cryptocurrency, and I have personal experience with the regime's theft of mining equipment, I have not seen credible evidence to support the claim that the 2018 gold sale was converted into bitcoin. The mastermind behind the alleged operation, Alex Saab, was in US custody from 2020 to 2023, and it is unlikely that he would have been able to control a vast fortune in bitcoin during that time. Furthermore, the Venezuelan Central Bank's listed reserves at the time of his release were approximately $9.9 billion, with no publicly identified BTC disclosures. It is also unlikely that proceeds from crypto sales would appear in Venezuela's official reserves, given the country's history of extreme corruption. The regime's supposed crypto regulator, SUNACRIP, has been embroiled in corruption scandals, including the embezzlement of billions of dollars. Additionally, the regime has a track record of mismanaging complex operations, including the state-owned oil company, PDVSA. The country's chronic energy shortages and fragile electrical infrastructure also make it challenging to set up large-scale mining operations. In conclusion, while I do believe that there is bitcoin in Venezuela, I am skeptical that it is in the hands of the regime.