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Research Reveals That Only a Tiny Percentage of Traders Drive Accuracy in Prediction Markets
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret who was arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may be part of a small group of informed traders who significantly influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the broader crowd incurs losses. The study, conducted by researchers from t…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals That Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Accuracy in Prediction Markets
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who drive price movements on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of users incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers fro…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may be an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of traders incur losses around them. The study, conducted by re…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for wagering on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests it could represent an extreme example of the small, informed trader group that significantly influences prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from London Business …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Contribute to Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret allegedly betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who significantly influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the broader crowd incurs losses. The study, conducted by research…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Research Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret who was arrested for betting on a classified US raid highlights a more significant issue with prediction markets. According to a new study, this incident may be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of users incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers f…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
New Study Reveals Only a Small Fraction of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for wagering on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as it highlights the significant influence of a small group of informed traders on prediction markets. According to a new study, these individuals, like the accused soldier, have a substantial impact on price movements on platforms such as Polymarket, while the majority …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Contribute to Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for wagering on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of the small, informed group of traders who drive price movements on platforms like Polymarket, while the broader crowd incurs losses. The study, conducted by researchers …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
New Study Reveals That Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research, conducted by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Ingerslev Jensen, and Howard Kung of London Business School and Yale, analyzed every Polymarket trade from 2023 to 2025 and found that a mere 3% of traders are responsible for most …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Fraction of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests it could be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who drive prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of traders incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from London Business School and Yale, analyzed 1.72…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.