Study Reveals That Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests that a small group of informed traders, like the soldier, are the ones actually influencing prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of users incur losses. This study, conducted by researchers from the London Business School and Yale, …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.